管理科学与工程系学术讲座

题目: Swedish Electricity Industry: Future and Challenges

瑞典电力行业的前景及挑战

演讲人: 唐讴， 教授，瑞典林雪平大学

时间: 2019年11月4日 13:30

地点: 同济大厦A楼509教室 

讲座摘要:

Energy policy has a vital impact on the investment in renewables and on the decommissioning of traditional ones. Sweden aims to expand the renewable electricity production and subsequently to reduce CO2 emissions. To achieve this, the Swedish Energy Agency issues electricity certificates as an incentive. However, the price issues, together with the intermittent availability of renewable energy sources and the uncertainty of future fuel costs, will significantly affect the economic performance of the electricity producers. It is only after understanding the interaction of those factors that we can define companies’ business models for achieving a sustainable development in the electricity sector. This presentation thus first aims to apply a system dynamics approach to integrate both strategic decisions such as capacity expansion/decommission, and operational features such as randomness and seasonal factors in electricity production. The model highlights the complex and nonlinear interaction of important factors in the electricity sector. On the other hand, decommissioning nuclear power plants is a long process not least caused by the substantial investments and consequently sunk costs in the plants. Thus, from a market perspective the increase in intermittent power sources means that nuclear needs to investigate other revenue streams. As the expectation of the future electric vehicles market, as well as the increased interest in hydrogen for other applications, producing hydrogen has become a potential source of income, particularly when surplus electricity exists. The second aim of this presentation is studying the feasibility of investing in hydrogen production using Swedish nuclear power as a background. 

The study results indicate that the energy policy should not be introduced in an isolated manner, but rather need to incorporate the incentives of renewables with other decisions such as nuclear decommission. Additionally, this study predicts an upcoming increase in electricity price, as well as a more volatile price after the capacity profile has been changed and dominated by hydro, biomass and wind. This study provides guidelines for policy makers and managers to make better-informed decisions for a healthy development of their businesses as well as of the entire electricity sector. 

Keywords：

Swedish electricity production, renewable energy, energy policy, nuclear, system dynamics 

演讲嘉宾简介:

唐讴，任职于瑞典林雪平大学管理与工程系，主要研究方向包括产业经济、库存管理、生产计划与控制系统、可持续供应链管理等；研究成果丰硕，在POM，EJOR、I JPE等国际知名期刊发表论文100余篇；唐讴教授目前担任I JPE欧洲区主编，曾担任国际库存研究协会主席。