An employee (right) addresses consumer queries on home appliance trade-ins at a store in Chongqing on Thursday. [SUN KAIFANG/FOR CHINA DAILY]

The COVID-19 pandemic has been the most severe global economic shock in the past half-century, affecting both developed and developing countries. China’s economy was no exception, with consumption significantly impacted. In 2020 and 2022, China’s total retail sales of consumer goods experienced year-on-year declines. However, as the impact of the pandemic has since receded, China’s consumption market has gradually recovered, demonstrating resilience and unveiling new growth opportunities.

Vast market

In 2019, China’s total consumption reached 40.8 trillion yuan ($5.62 trillion). By 2023, this figure had increased to 47 trillion yuan, marking approximately 15 percent growth over four years. This consumption market, valued at around $6.69 trillion, makes China the second-largest consumer market globally, trailing only the United States’ $8.33 trillion market.

This vast market size presents significant opportunities for both domestic and foreign enterprises. From January to May 2024, total retail sales of consumer goods in China amounted to 19.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.1 percent.

Catering, tourism lead way

The tourism and catering sectors were severely affected during the pandemic. However, post-pandemic, these two sectors have shown the most notable recovery. During the May Day holiday this year, domestic tourism trips numbered 295 million, significantly higher than in 2023 and surpassing the pre-COVID level of 195 million in 2019. Since early 2023, the number of travelers has consistently increased during each significant holiday. With the rise in travel, related industries have seen a recovery in revenue. In 2023, total revenue among star-rated hotels nationwide was 2.92 billion yuan, re-achieving a net profit. Similarly, the catering industry has shown a remarkable recovery, with total consumption in the sector reaching 5.29 trillion yuan in 2023, surpassing 2019 levels. From January to May 2024, catering revenue amounted to 2.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4 percent.

Resurgence is seen

Ctrip, a major Nasdaq-listed travel services provider, reported revenue of 44.5 billion yuan and a net profit of 9.9 billion yuan in 2023, up from 35.7 billion yuan and 7 billion yuan, respectively, in 2019. This recovery is particularly significant considering the pandemic years (2020-22), when annual revenue dropped to around 20 billion yuan. The first quarter report of 2024 shows continued improvement in revenue and profit, with company revenue reaching 11.9 billion yuan, a 29 percent increase from the same period in 2023, and a profit of 4.3 billion yuan, up from 3.4 billion yuan a year earlier.

Ctrip’s numbers also indicate a growing number of foreign tourists visiting China. During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday this year, inbound travel orders on the platform increased by 115 percent year-on-year, and during the May Day holiday, they rose by 105 percent year-on-year. According to the National Immigration Administration, entries and exits by foreign nationals in the first quarter reached 13.07 million, a 305 percent year-on-year increase, with visa-free entries of foreigners reaching 1.99 million, a 266 percent year-on-year increase.

Recently, a US vlogger known as “Baobao Bear” popularized the internet meme “City or not City,” inspired by scenes around Shanghai and widely imitated across the country. “I love Shanghai, and I’ve been living here for seven years,” said the vlogger, highlighting the city’s vibrancy and charm. “This is exactly what ‘City’ represents in my eyes.” This trend reflects China’s global appeal as a tourist destination. Amid this surge in tourism to China, travel agents from North America, Europe and other regions are focusing on the Chinese market, exploring innovative projects and boutique routes, as well as engaging in international tourism cooperation.

Evolving market

Since reform and opening-up began in 1978, each decade in China has witnessed new consumer needs. In the 1970s and 1980s, bicycles, sewing machines and watches were considered the three essential household items. The 1980s and 1990s saw a shift to refrigerators, televisions and washing machines. Air conditioners and computers became commonplace in the late 1990s. After 2000, there was a surge in housing and car purchases. In the past decade, smartphones and online platforms have thrived. Each of these sectors generated demand worth trillions of yuan.

Chinese consumption patterns continue to evolve. For example, Anta, a Hong Kong-listed sporting goods maker, offers a wide range of products from affordable running shoes to high-end golf gear. In 2023, Anta reported annual sales exceeding 60 billion yuan and profits over 10 billion yuan. In the first quarter, Anta’s revenue reached $1.18 billion, up from $1.05 billion in the same period in 2023, marking a 12.6 percent increase. Anta’s growth mirrors Chinese consumers’ heightened focus on health and fitness.

At the macroeconomic level, consumption has emerged as a pivotal driver of China’s economic growth. In 2019, China’s GDP grew by 6 percent, fueled by an 8 percent expansion in consumption and a 5 percent increase in investment. In response to the COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee proposed during its May 14 meeting to leverage China’s vast market advantages and domestic demand potential. This initiative aimed to establish a new development pattern that promotes mutual reinforcement between domestic and international economic circulation. Consumption made significant contributions to economic growth in 2021 (65.4 percent), 2022 (32.8 percent), and 2023 (82.5 percent).Meanwhile, the growth rate of investment has declined, with its contribution to economic growth decreasing from 87.6 percent in 2019 to 28.9 percent in 2023.

Future prospects

Looking ahead to the next decade, what will drive the emergence of new trillion-yuan markets in China? Could it be humanoid robots aiding the elderly, voice-controlled smart home devices or low-altitude drones revolutionizing travel times? As China continues to innovate and lead in technology, these burgeoning sectors have the potential to reshape consumer behavior and open expansive new markets. The development of AI, 5G technology and advanced manufacturing will likely play critical roles in shaping these trends, driving both consumer demand and economic growth. Furthermore, with an aging population, there will be a growing demand for products and services that enhance the well-being and independence of seniors, promising significant economic opportunities and improving millions of lives.

Studies indicate that younger Chinese consumers increasingly prioritize emotional satisfaction throughout the consumption journey, not merely the functionality, quality, price or quantity of products and services. For instance, the rise of virtual reality technology has popularized immersive experiences such as the “Disappearing Pharaoh VR Exhibition”, held in Shanghai last May and returning this July. This exhibition offers unprecedented virtual tours of the Pyramid of Khufu, allowing visitors to explore its internal structure, uncover mysterious areas and delve into ancient Egyptian civilization.

In the digital age, augmented reality technology has become ubiquitous in daily life, notably transforming the fashion retail sector. AR virtual fitting technology offers Chinese consumers a novel shopping experience. For example, Tommy Hilfiger, a renowned fashion brand, has integrated this technology both online and offline. Through its WeChat mini program, users can register as members and enjoy AR virtual fittings from home, visualizing how clothes appear on them without physical try-ons. Tommy Hilfiger has also introduced AR digital outfits in offline stores, enabling consumers to virtually try on new styles in real time.

The Chinese consumer market, comprising 1.4 billion people and increasingly influenced by foreign tourism and cutting-edge technologies, brims with potential and unforeseen opportunities.

The writer is deputy dean of the School of Economics and Management, Tongji University.

 

译文：

新冠疫情是过去的半个世纪中最为严重的一次全球性经济冲击，对发达国家和发展中国家都产生了巨大的影响。中国经济也不例外，在此期间消费受到显著冲击。2020年和2022年，中国社会消费品零售总额均出现同比下降。然而，随着疫情影响的减弱，中国的消费市场逐渐恢复，展现出强大的韧性，揭示了新的增长机遇。

市场复苏：从危机到反弹

2019年，中国的总消费额为40.8万亿元（约合5.62万亿美元）。到2023年，这一数字增长至47万亿元，四年间增长约15%。这个价值约6.69万亿美元的消费市场，使中国成为仅次于美国（8.33万亿美元）的全球第二大消费市场。这一庞大的市场规模为众多国内外企业提供了巨大的机遇。2024年1-5月，中国社会消费品零售总额为19.5万亿元，同比增长4.1%。

复苏故事：旅游业和餐饮业的引领

旅游业和餐饮业在疫情期间受到严重影响。疫情后，这两个消费领域的复苏最为显著。2024年五一黄金周，全国国内旅游出游合计2.95亿人次，显著高于2023年水平，且超过疫情前2019年的1.95亿人次。事实上，自2023年初以来，每个重要假期的出行人数都在不断增加。同时，随着出行人数的增加，相关行业实现了收入修复。2023年全国星级酒店利润总额为29.17亿元，重新实现了净盈利。餐饮业的整体恢复同样显著。2023年餐饮业总消费额达到了5.29万亿元，超过了2019年水平。2024年1-5月份餐饮收入2.16万亿元，同比增长8.4%。

复苏态势显现

携程是一家主要提供旅游服务的线上平台，在NASDAQ上市。根据其披露的年报，2023年携程实现营业收入445亿元，实现利润99亿，较2019年的357亿元和70亿元有所上升。与疫情期间（2020至2022年）其年收入降至约200亿元相比，这一复苏尤为显著。2024年第一季度报告显示，其营收和利润还在持续改善，公司收入为119亿元，较2023年同期增长29%；实现利润43亿元，高于2023年同期的34亿元。

携程发布的数据还显示，越来越多的外国游客来到中国游玩。今年端午假期，携程平台入境游订单量同比增长115%，五一假期期间同比增长105%。根据国家移民管理局统计，2024年第一季度，外籍人员出入境人次高达1307.4万，同比上升305.2%，其中免签入境外国人达198.8万人次，同比增长266.1%。

近期，美国一位名叫“宝宝熊”的vlogger在网上走红，他以上海周边的场景为素材，创作了“City不City”的网络热词，该梗被全国网友争相模仿。“我爱上海，我已经在这里生活了七年。”这位美国博主强调上海充满了活力和魅力，“这正是我眼中‘City’的代表。”“City不City”火起来的背后，是作为旅游胜地的中国“火”遍了全世界。在这波赴华旅游的热潮中，除了外国游客，还有来自北美、欧洲等地旅行商的身影。他们将目光聚焦中国旅游市场，发掘创新项目、精品路线，积极开展国际旅游合作。

消费演变的几十年：消费新前沿

从1978年改革开放以来，每过十年，中国人都会出现新的消费需求。20世纪70年代和80年代，自行车、缝纫机和手表被称为中国家庭的三件套。80年代和90年代变成了冰箱、电视和洗衣机。90年代中后期，空调和电脑逐步走入中国家庭。2000年后，住房和汽车的购买量激增。最近十年，智能手机、在线平台消费蓬勃发展。上述每一个行业都催生了千亿乃至万亿级别的需求。

事实上，中国人的消费还在发生着变化。安踏是一家在香港上市的体育用品生产企业，其产品涵盖从经济实惠的跑鞋到高端高尔夫装备的多样化产品。根据年报数据，2023年安踏的销售额超过600亿元，利润超过100亿元。2024年第一季度安踏收入达到11.83亿美元（约84亿元），2023年同期为10.50亿美元（约74.58亿元），同比增加12.6%。安踏近些年的增长背后，体现了中国消费者对健康和健身日益增加的关注。

在宏观层面，消费对中国整体经济增长的拉动作用越来越强。2019年，中国的GDP增速为6.0%，其中消费增速8.0%，投资增速5.4%。2020年5月14日，在年初爆发新冠疫情的背景下，中共中央政治局常委会会议首次提出，要充分发挥中国超大规模市场优势和内需潜力，构建国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。2021、2022、2023年，消费对于经济增长的贡献度分别为65.4%、32.8%和82.5%。于此同时，投资的增速不断下降，投资对于经济增长的贡献度由2019年的87.6%降低到2023年的28.9%。

什么驱动中国消费的未来？

展望未来十年，哪些商品会成为新的千亿乃至万亿的市场？也许是辅助老年人的人形机器人、语音控制的智能家居设备，或是彻底改变出行时空的低空无人机？随着中国继续在技术上创新和引领，这些新兴行业有潜力重塑消费行为并开辟广阔的新市场。人工智能、5G技术和先进制造业的发展可能在这些趋势中起到关键作用，推动消费需求和经济增长。此外，随着人口老龄化，对提高老年人福祉和独立性的产品和服务的需求将日益增长，这将带来巨大的经济机遇并改善数百万人的生活质量。

一些研究表明，中国年轻一代消费者越来越关注在整个消费过程中获得的情感满足，而不仅仅是产品或服务本身。他们正在将重心从产品和服务的功能、质量、价格、数量转向整体消费体验。比如，随着虚拟现实技术持续快速发展，VR项目等沉浸式体验获得了广泛普及。“消失的法老VR展”于去年5月在上海首次亮相，并定于今年7月回归，游客以一种前所未有的方式参观世界七大奇迹之一的胡夫金字塔。游客可以深入了解金字塔内部结构和历史文脉，探索从未向公众开放的神秘区域，揭开古埃及文明的神秘面纱。

当下，在数字化时代，AR技术已经深入到我们生活的方方面面。特别是在时尚零售行业，AR虚拟试衣技术为消费者带来了一种全新的购物体验。著名时尚品牌Tommy Hilfiger将AR增强现实技术融入线上线下。用户进入微信小程序注册会员，即可开启 AR 虚拟试衣体验，足不出户就能查看服装上身效果。同时，Tommy还将新款服饰以炫酷的AR数字化服饰植入到线下门店，利用AR技术，消费者可以在虚拟试衣间中试穿衣服，省去了实际更换的麻烦，同时提升了购物的决策准确性。

这一由14亿中国人组成的消费市场，受到外国旅游和前沿技术的日益影响，充满了各种期待和惊喜。

 

来源：China Daily 2024-07-17