题目：Trade Uncertainty and Firm Pollution

演讲人：刘宇（复旦大学经济学院 副教授）

时间：2021年6月15日（周二）12:00-13:00

地点：同济大厦A楼206室

Abstract: 

Will a country fail to gain from trade when stringent environmental regulations are adopted? To answer this question, we develop a trade model with heterogeneous firms and examine the effects of a reduction in trade policy uncertainty on firm behaviors when an emission cap exists. The model predicts that, without an emission cap, a reduced uncertainty increases both firm output and firm pollution emission. The presence of an emission cap inconsequentially alters the positive impact on output, but prominently reduces emission intensity. Consistent with the predictions, we combine three highly dis-aggregated firm-level data sets to show that reduced tariff uncertainty, brought by the U.S.’s grant of permanent normal trade relations to China, increases Chinese firms’ output by the same magnitudes across prefectures with different extents of emission cap controls, but reduces firms’ SO2 emission and emission intensity only in prefectures with stringent emission controls. The decline in SO2 emission is caused by a reduced use of fossil fuel, a lower sulfur content in energy, and a higher investment in pollution abatement equipment. We also find that the reduced uncertainty improves firms’ productivity especially in prefectures with stringent emission controls.

个人简介：

刘宇，现任复旦大学经济学院副教授，研究方向为发展经济学，公共经济学，财政税收，国际贸易。2014年于美国耶鲁大学经济系获得博士学位，2008年于香港科技大学经济系获得硕士学位。近年来在Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,，Journal of International Economics, World Economy 等期刊发表文章，担任Review of Economics and Statistics, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Corporate Finance, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, National Tax Journal, World Development, 经济学季刊, 经济学报期刊的匿名审稿人。