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Non-Additivity of Subjective Expectations over Different Time Intervals

Mon, Sep 18, 2023

演讲人:孙晨(柏林洪堡大学 研究员)







摘要:We examine the additivity of stock-market expectations over different time intervals. When asked about a ten-year interval, survey respondents expect a stock-price change that is not equal to, but closer to zero than, the sum of their expectations over two shorter time intervals that cover the same ten years. Such sub-additivity is irrational in that it cannot stem from aggregating short-term expectations. Model estimates show that the pattern is consistent with a time perception where shorter time intervals have a proportionally larger weight. We also find that the respondents’ degree of additivity is correlated with making larger financial investments.

简介:孙晨博士现任柏林洪堡大学经管学院研究员。他于2018年毕业于荷兰蒂尔堡大学,获得经济学博士学位。在此之前,他获得了复旦大学的经济学学士和硕士学位。孙晨的研究领域是行为经济学和行为金融学,研究方向包括跨期选择、资产价格的信念形成和改变等,曾在Experimental Economics期刊发表论文。



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